Sunday, June 01, 2008

What Happened Yesterday Re MI & FL

Politico posted its report on the meeting yesterday. The drama was in the morning but the significance occurred in the afternoon. The committee broke late for lunch - at 3 pm - as the morning in which they had presentations and Q&A went overlong. They were supposed to break for 90 minutes. Instead, the reconvened in public at 6 pm. Apparently they worked out their difference in private. More on that later.

Here's what DNC Chair Dean said should guide their deliberations:
“The committee arrived at its decision with three basic principles in mind. One, that we must be fair to the voters in both states. Two, that we must be fair to both campaigns who abided by the rules in good faith and three, that we must be fair to the 48 states that followed the rules,” he added.
There were 3 motions.
  1. a motion to restore the FL delegation - both pledged (elected) and unpledged (superdelegates) - at full value, according to the results of the January primary. VOTE: 15 to 12.
  2. a motion to a to restore the FL delegation - both pledged (elected) and unpledged (superdelegates) - at half value, according to the results of the January primary. VOTE: 27- O
  3. a motion to restore the MI delegation at half value in a distribution of giving Mrs. Clinton half of 69 delegates (34.5) and half of 59 (29.5) to Obama. This allocation was based on several factors - the vote in January, the exit polls that day, and as Sen. Levin noted and is not often enough reported, it also splits the difference between what the two campaigns wanted. Clinton wanted her to get 73-55 while Obama wanted 64-64. Difference between 73 and 64 is 9, Obama got 4, slightly less that half of splitting the difference. VOTE: 19-8
A couple of notes - regarding FL that first vote had to happen before the second could and was the reason the second vote was unanimous.

Second, both proposals that won had the support of the Democratic state parties, including Clinton supporters in those states. So Clinton's continued opposition to the determination of the deliberations yesterday would be at odds to her own supporters in those states. Again her OWN supporters supported this compromise. It made her look unreasonable.

Third, and this is important. Obama twice compromised. He agreed to the 19 delegates in FL. And, and - Obama's supporters had to votes and the power to have "hijacked" 9 delegates. That olive branch meant nothing to Ickes for Clinton.

Fourth, 13 of the 30 RBC members have publicly endorsed Clinton, while 8 have openly backed Obama.

Ickes used language like hijacking and violence. Really rabble-rousing (and there was rabble to rouse in the room). He kept speaking of 4 delegates being hijacked. He, perhaps inadvertently said, notwithstanding the flawed aspect of this, whereas else where he denied the Michigan primary was flawed, that it was Obama's fault that he took his name off the ballots in MI. Rather than consider himself lucky there weren't nine "taken" from them, he expressed in indignation in colorful language ("you bet your ass).

Ickes was dead wrong and lying in one key respect. He claimed that the committee substituted their judgment for the judgment of the Michigan voters. Actually the committee approved the judgment of the Michigan Democratic Party. It's only right that the problem originated with them that they should provide the answer. But Ickes ignores that salient fact.

The Florida decision
Clinton = 52.5 pledged delegates
Obama = 33.5
Edwards = 6.5

The Michigan decision
Clinton = 34.5 pledged delegates
Obama = 29.5.

Hillary = 87 pledged dels
Obama = 63,
Net gain for Hillary = 24

The new magic number is 2,118. (Used to be 2026).

Here is the updated math, according to NBC's First Read
Pledged (elected)
Obama = 1712 Clinton = 1587

Obama =327 Clinton = 293

Edwards pledged delegates from FL
Obama = 16.5 Clinton = 0

Obama = 2055.5 Clinton = 1880

Obama needs only 62.5 delegates to have the nomination

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